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Various labor market indicators are also showing growing weakness in the economy, he said. Societe GeneraleNational Federation of Independent Business data shows further labor market weakness is likely to come, as small business hiring plans continue to fall. Both stats would suggest a rising unemployment rate going forward. In the meantime, the labor market has consistently proven resilient despite high interest rates, and stocks have enjoyed an eye-popping rally to new highs. Some also argue that labor market data points like the rising unemployment rate have to be shown with context.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, didn't, Edwards, aren't, we'll, Societe Generale Edwards, Bob Elliott, groupthink Edwards, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Wall, Business, Societe Generale National Federation of Independent Business, ING, Generale, Unlimited Partners, Bridgewater Associates, of Labor Statistics, Tech
Gold prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,388.10 per ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after gaining more than 1% to its highest since April 19 on Wednesday. "Following the April consumer price index data, the odds for a potential September rate cut have firmed, which suits the gold price from a yield perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. However, a potential bounce in the dollar or treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for gold price in the remainder of the week." Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, KCM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .
Gold prices flat as U.S. inflation data takes centre-stage
  + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices traded flat on Wednesday as investors looked forward to a critical U.S. inflation print that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut trajectory. Spot gold held its ground at $2,359.99 per ounce, as of 0704 GMT, trading in a narrow $6 range, after gaining 1% on Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, the data is expected to show that core inflation in April rose 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.4% the prior month. Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. However, data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Bullion, Jerome Powell Organizations: Fort, BHP Group Locations: Fort Knox Alaska, Kinross, Tetlin , Alaska, ., U.S, American
"I expect that inflation will move back down on a monthly basis to levels that were more like the lower readings we were having last year," he told attendees at a banking conference. So we're just going to have to see where the inflation data fall out." The index, a proxy for wholesale prices, accelerated 2.2% on an annual basis, the highest reading in a year. "This will be the most important read of the month [excluding nonfarm payrolls] as inflation continues to defy expectations," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. Even if the report comes in around consensus expectations, it will be "inadequate progress for the Fed to consider a cut until September," he added.
Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, we're, Dan North Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Allianz Trade North, Fed Locations: Rosemead , California, Amsterdam, Allianz Trade North America
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
Dollar nurses losses after another set of soft jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 155.39 yen , down from highs of 155.95 hit in the previous session. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was flat at 105.25. "We note jobless claims are weekly data that can be very volatile from week to week," Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, said in a note. "The BoE's urgency and willingness to cut ahead of the Fed will continue to weigh on the currency," Goh said. Being added to the list makes it harder for U.S. suppliers to ship to the targeted entities.
Persons: Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, Shunichi Suzuki, Rong Ren Goh, Sterling, BoE, Goh Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, dovish Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, Tokyo, Japan's Finance, Eastspring Investments, Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Fed, Treasury, Traders, PPI, Federal Locations: U.S, United States
Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August 2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. The four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility in numbers, increased to 215,000, up 4,750 from the previous week. "One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today's weekly jobless claims are any indication." Markets reacted little to the jobless claims release, with stock market futures slightly negative and Treasury yields mixed.
Persons: Dow Jones, Christopher Rupkey, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union Locations: New York
Treasury yields fall as investors consider Fed policy path
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 2-year Treasury yield was last over one basis point lower to 4.8095%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors considered the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy following the latest economic data and remarks from central bank officials. In recent weeks, expectations have moved toward there being fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously expected, or even none. Barkin's comments came after a weaker-than-expected April jobs report released at the end of last week had buoyed hopes about rate cuts. More Fed policymakers are slated to make remarks throughout the week, which investors will be watching closely for additional hints about the policy outlook.
Persons: Tom Barkin Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Richmond Federal, Fed
The latest macro data is sending mixed signals, reflecting both a "no landing" and a "soft landing," Morgan Stanley said. The bank recommends defensive sectors, including consumer staples, to navigate volatility. AdvertisementInvestors should ramp up investments in defensive stock sectors like consumer staples and utilities as the latest data sends mixed signals about the economy, Morgan Stanley says. Based on this rationale, Wilson suggests opting for robust cyclical names in a no-landing scenario and premium growth stocks in a soft landing. It also provides some more defensiveness to portfolios as a hedge amid uncertain/unpredictable macro data," they said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Michael Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm, Staples, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Conference, Reserve Locations: today's
U.S. Treasury yields were lower Monday, continuing a fall after Friday's April jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls growth and an unexpected tick higher in unemployment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was off 2 basis points to 4.4975%. The 2-year Treasury yield was slightly lower to 4.8056%. U.S. payrolls rose by just 175,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, short of the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 240,000. Wage growth was also less than expected, the report showed.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, of Labor Statistics
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 25, 2024. U.S. stock futures flickered near the flatline Monday evening after the Dow Jones Industrial Average wrapped its fourth positive day in a row. Dow futures inched higher by just 8 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.03%. Investors carried over their bullish market sentiment from Friday, when the latest nonfarm payrolls data showed that job growth came in below expectations in April and unemployment ticked higher.
Persons: Rob Haworth, Haworth, Johnson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Disney, UBS, Johnson Locations: New York City, U.S, Swiss
The US economy may already be mired in recession, Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. Downside labor revisions and rising job losses indicate a downturn has hit, the QI Research CEO said. AdvertisementThe US is already mired in recessionary downturn, and rising job losses prove it, veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementBy that standard, the rule was triggered in October of last year, according to recently published labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023, indicating job losses of 192,000. Other analysts have also projected rising recession risk, hand-in-hand with a labor market fallout.
Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, , there's, it's, Booth, Goldman Sachs, payrolls, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Downside, QI, Service, Bloomberg, Fox Business
LONDON — European markets are set to advance Monday as traders continue to assess the possibility of rate cuts after softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The French CAC 40 was set to open 50 points higher at 8,239 points, German DAX was expected to jump 60 points to 18,050. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed 175,000 jobs were added in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8% in the prior month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wage figures also came in lower than expected, an encouraging sign for inflation.
Persons: DAX, nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: CAC, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.
Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
With the Fed, Apple earnings and the jobs report passing with flying colors this week, the runway to more gains looks a lot less cluttered. This past week was chock full of Club earnings: 12 portfolio companies, including Apple , delivered results. Analysts expect Wynn's earnings per share of $1.27 versus 29 cents a year ago when China was not fully back from Covid. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jerome Powell, we're, Jim Cramer, Jim, Apple, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Stanley Black, Decker, Bausch, FactSet, It's, Bob Iger, Iger, Nelson Peltz, We're, Krystal, Berkshire Hathaway, Tyson, Jones Lang, Walt, Ferrari N.V, WK Kellogg, Wynn, Vishay, CRON, MARA, RICK, Ginkgo, Jim Cramer's, David Paul Morris Organizations: Federal Reserve, Apple, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Linde, Bausch Health, Coterra Energy, Club, Disney, Wynn Resorts, CNBC, Revenue, Vegas Sands, Cotai, Boston, Airlines, Krystal Biotech, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Axsome Therapeutics, Tyson Foods, TSN, Bowlero Corp, CNA Financial Corp, CNA, Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated, Technologies, Realty Income Corp, Lab, Teradata Corp, Technology, FMC Corporation, FMC, Paymentus Holdings, Shockwave, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, Simon Property Group, Sterling Construction Company, Apple Hospitality, Boise Cascade Corporation, BellRing Brands, Coty, COTY, Fidelity National Information Services Inc, Vornado Realty, Walt Disney Co, Holdings, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Nikola Corporation, BP, Rockwell Automation, MarketAxess Holdings, Jumia Technologies, GEO Group, Builders FirstSource Inc, Duke Energy Corp, WYNN, Rivian Automotive, Arista Networks, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Astera Labs, Bros, Flywire Corporation, B2Gold Corp, Kinross Gold Corp, Virgin Galactic Holdings, iRobot Corp, Electronic Arts Inc, McKesson Corp, ACM Research, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, Toyota Motor Corp, Emerson Electric Co, Perion, Editas, Brink's Company, Sinclair Corporation, New Fortress Energy, Starwood Property Trust, Animal Health, ELAN, Farms, IM Cannabis Corp, Fox Corporation, Formula One, Icahn Enterprises, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Arm Holdings plc, ARM, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Trade, AppLovin Corporation, Sciences Corp, SolarEdge Technologies, Roblox Corporation, GigaCloud Technology Inc, Warner Bros ., Properties Trust, Growers, Constellation Energy Group, Cronos, Fiverr, Solar Inc, EPAM Systems, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Digital Holdings, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Akamai Technologies, Semiconductor, Insulet Corp, NuScale Power Corporation, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Bloom Energy Corporation, Construction, AMC Networks, CRH Public Ltd . Company, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Allen, Co . Media, Technology Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: China, Eaton, Amazon, Covid, Macao, Vegas, Sun Valley , Idaho
Analysts say fast-food prices feel particularly painful because they're rising faster than grocery prices. Fast-food prices have been shooting upRestaurant prices are determined by "two major categories" — food costs and labor costs, Citi analyst Jon Tower told BI. Related storiesFast-food chains put up their menu prices to reflect the higher food costs and payrolls. AdvertisementGrocery inflation is coolingFast food seems particularly expensive right now because grocery inflation is cooling much more rapidly, analysts BI spoke to said. AdvertisementBut the inverse is also true — grocery stores benefit much more than restaurants when food inflation cools.
Persons: , Jim Sanderson, Jon Tower, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Price, Danilo Gargiulo, Bernstein, Gargiulo, they've, Garguilo, Sara Senatore, Chad Frye Organizations: Analysts, Service, Northcoast Research, Citi, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America Locations: Russia, Ukraine, California
A gong inside the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. China Vanke's subsidiary Onewo and EV maker Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology began trading on the Hong Kong market on Thursday. Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday, tracking Wall Street gains ahead of key U.S. employment data. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect to see 240,000 job gains in the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report due Friday at 0830a.m. Stock markets in Japan and mainland China were shut for public holidays.
Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm Organizations: Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China Vanke's, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, Apple, Investors, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, U.S Locations: China, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, U.S, 0830a.m, Taiwan, South Korea, South, Japan
Gold set for second weekly fall; U.S. payrolls on investors' radar
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices were poised for a second straight weekly decline, although bullion held steady on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could provide cues on the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline. Spot gold held its ground at $2,306.84 per ounce by 0457 GMT but lost more than 1% this week. Softer U.S. payrolls print could provide support for gold but a better report may weigh on prices, Wong added. The non-farm payrolls report is due at 1230 GMT.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Wong, Wang Tao, Fawad Organizations: Co, U.S ., Fed, City Index Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Egypt, Israel
The US unemployment rate remained low in April, but it ticked up. AdvertisementIn the US, the unemployment rate increased from March to April. Plus, job growth in April slowed down a lot, a new labor market report on Friday showed. This job growth for the US was way below the forecast of 238,000 and the first time the initial print has come in below expectations since last October. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Nonfarm, Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Treasury yields inch higher ahead of April jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than one basis point to 4.5814%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last over one basis point higher to 4.8891%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited key labor market data that could provide hints about the state of the economy. Investors looked ahead to the April jobs report, which investors will be scanning for clues about whether the labor market is easing or remaining resilient.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal Reserve
Signage at a job fair at Brunswick Community College in Bolivia, North Carolina, US, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in April while the unemployment rate rose, reversing a trend of robust job growth that had kept the Federal Reserve cautious as it looks for signals on when it can start cutting interest rates. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% against expectations it would hold steady at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from the previous month and 3.9% from a year ago, both below consensus estimates and an encouraging sign for inflation. The jobless rate tied for the highest level since January 2022.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Brunswick Community College, Reserve, Dow Locations: Bolivia , North Carolina, U.S
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Jim Cramer suggested some of Apple's AI commentary Thursday night could be a factor in the Google parent's stock move. We continue to believe the market is underappreciating Coterra's ability to pullback production in natural gas in favor of oil. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: Jim Cramer, That's, Jim, Tom Jorden, Jorden, Nelson Peltz, Peltz, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Conference, Nasdaq, Google, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply, Coterra Energy, Diamondback Energy, Cinco, Cinco de Mayo, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Disney, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Cinco de
Elsewhere, the dollar lost ground against most of its peers and was headed for its worst week in nearly two months, in part due to the sharp rise in the yen this week. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. "Recent Fed speech has acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation and the desire to maintain the current level of policy rates for longer. Down Under, the Australian dollar edged 0.07% higher to $0.6570, and was on track to gain nearly 0.6% for the week. The New Zealand dollar tacked on a marginal 0.03% to $0.5963, and was eyeing a 0.4% weekly gain.
Persons: Tokyo's, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Tai Hui Organizations: Traders, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank, Federal, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand Locations: Asia, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
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